09 Sep 2010
Tonga, a unique place in an increasingly important Pacific, says Cleo Paskal
matangaitonga.to
by Mary Lyn Fonua
VISITING Tonga in early September an award-winning writer and geopolitical expert, Cleo Paskal, is looking closely at Tonga’s political reform process in a country she says is “a remarkable, spectacular place” that is now in a unique situation of having to think through many of the fundamentals of an electoral process from scratch.
“I am deeply concerned that decisions can be made through this reform process that can create deep rends in the fabric of Tongan society. And that can be hastened or exacerbated by importing inappropriate systems,” she said in an interview with Matangi Tonga Online on Tuesday September 7.
Cleo, who lives in Montreal, Quebec, is an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, as well as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Global Energy and Environment Strategic Ecosystem. She is adjunct faculty at Manipal University, India and SCMS, India. She is also an award winning journalist who has contributed to a wide range of publications, has hosted BBC radio shows, and co-wrote an Emmy winning documentary television series.
She is the author of Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map which this year won The Grantham Award of Special Merit for cutting edge journalism in Reporting on the Environment.
In Global Warring Cleo makes a case that climate change will threaten global security and rock already tenuous geopolitical balances around the world. “Nothing can be taken for granted and that includes global transportation, international law, food supply, stability of infrastructure, access to resources, ability to project power and economic stability. As it stands no country is prepared.”
In the Pacific, Cleo said that human and ecological disasters aside, “once sea levels start rising substantially, strategically speaking there will be two types of islands in the Pacific: islands that sink and become potential shipping hazards and islands that stay above water and become potential geostrategic commercial and military bases, and in determining which bit of ocean belongs to who, international politics will play a more prominent role.”
“China has been thoughtful about choosing its allies in the Pacific, one of its strongest allies, Tonga, has mountainous islands that are likely to survive climate change,” she wrote.
Cleo left Tonga today for Singapore where she will give two presentations at a Global Futures Forum on September 12. GFF participants include analysts from intelligence, diplomatic, defence, and homeland security agencies, along with counterparts from academia, non-government organisations, and industry, who will now consider the impact of environmental change on world security issues.
After that Cleo plans return to Tonga to observe the process of reform and later on the election itself.
During her current visit to Tonga Cleo met Tongan politicians and journalists, and talked to Matangi Tonga Online about her interests and concerns and explains why the Pacific islands are becoming more important. –
Mary Lyn Fonua: Your book examines the rapid pace of global change but also looks closely at the Pacific, including Tonga?
Cleo Paskal: For this book, essentially the world is undergoing three major apocryphal shifts at the same time.
– Geopolitical, with the erosion of the primacy of the west, which has been a constant fact for hundreds of years in geopolitical context whether it was the European empires or the American influence and that’s been the dominant structure for a long time and now that’s in decline or it’s weakening and with the rise of Asia.
– Then the global financial shift, highlighted by the global financial crisis, which is really showing some of the weaknesses in the way that globalization has been practiced, particularly since end of the cold war.
-And then the third is these environmental changes, which are partially climate change but also population shifts, changing consumption patterns, depletion of ground water, a whole range of environmental change factors. So those three things: the geopolitical, the geoeconomic, and the geophysical, each on their own would be an enormous shift in the way the world functions but coming all at the same time creates an environment of extreme instability and vulnerability.
Q. This is where your research is focused, this is the core of your advisory areas?
My background as a journalist was largely foreign correspondent type stuff. From there I shifted into foreign policy think tanks and in talking with people who are working in military circles or security circles about five years ago it was clear that they weren’t incorporating environmental change analysis into their forecasts, so they would talk about the future of China without taking into account that most of its major infrastructure is along a coast that’s flooding and they are running out of water.
So you can look at the geopolitical, you can look at the geoeconomic but if you are not including the geophysical it’s an incomplete analysis. So it’s not that I am an environmentalist, it’s that I want the complete geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis and to do that you need to include environmental change.
Q. You are very familiar with Tonga and know a lot of people here, how long have you been coming to Tonga?
I came to Tonga the first time in 2005 and I was deeply impressed by the country and it had quite a big impact on me. I had previously done a series for the BBC World Service Radio on the world’s smallest countries and I had visited many small countries in Europe, Monaco, San Marino, Liechtenstein and in the Pacific, as well, But there is something special about Tonga and it left a deep impression on me and I really liked it and then I went away and followed it in the news and you know it’s been a rough few years. So when I had the opportunity to come back again this past November I was delighted that I could come and see how things were going.
When I arrived I knew there had been a lot going on. I didn’t realize exactly how much was going on. Apart from the political reform, there was also the Energy Road Map, a rethink in the tourism industry, a think tank project coming up and just an enormous amount going on.
Particularly, what was interesting for me was this very unique situation of having to think through many of the fundamentals of an electoral process from scratch. What do you do about term limits? What do you do about term lengths? What do you do about campaign financing? These are all critical, extremely important issues that other countries are still struggling with and they were all being dealt with at the same time; and on top of that it’s fundamentally a foreign system. There are traditional government structures that have worked for a very long time, at the village level, at the church level. So the whole question of not only good governance but appropriate governance is all coming to a head here, now, and there are questions that are of universal importance anywhere human society has to govern itself. This is a unique place, and a unique time, and a unique set of circumstances for thinking about those sorts of issues.
Q. Why were you deeply impressed with Tonga?
I visit a lot of countries that have lost their sense of who they are. Tonga is Tonga, and it’s so real and so alive that sometimes people who are here don’t even realize it. In an increasingly globalised world, it is an increasingly unique place. A lot of the things that make Tonga so special and unique are qualities that make humans special and unique.
Q. You are very interested in the political reform. What is your role at the moment with regards to the reform?
Strictly observational. I am just trying to learn as much as I can. Because I took a look at small countries, I have certain concerns about trying to import a foreign system, especially a system of a larger country into a smaller country, and I am deeply, deeply concerned that decisions can be made through this reform process that can create deep rends in the fabric of Tongan society. And that can be hastened or exacerbated by importing inappropriate systems.
Q. We are seeing fractures as we get closer to the election.
The day I am most concerned about is not November 25 but November 26. Due to the “first past the post” voting system and the large slate of candidates, you can end up with electoral districts where 80 per cent of the people didn’t vote for the winner. So you can end up with a dozen unhappy candidates and 80% of the electorate disillusioned with the system.
And a lot depends on the tone of the candidates during the election but that discontent can be harnessed by those who don’t love the country more than themselves.
Q. We have seen it happen in the past and the rhetoric of implied threat has never quite disappeared.
There is a concern that individuals are appropriating democracy. Democracy doesn’t belong to a candidate or a party it belongs to the people, and that needs to be accepted. But democracy comes in many different forms. The first past the post system is, I think, possibly one of the least Tongan systems possible; there’s no consensus building there’s no discussion. An alternate vote (AV) would be better.
Q. Fiji was ahead of Tonga in development of political parties.
A political party system in a small country is a disaster.
Q. But then individual candidature has its own problems?
From what I have been reading, one of the ideal models, and it’s a model that is used in NW territories of Canada, is a consensus based model and we can do that here because the country is small enough. The goal then becomes for the members of parliament to reach consensus. They are rewarded for reaching consensus, as opposed to being rewarded for beating the other people in parliament.
Q. And Political parties?
The problem is if you are using that sort of a system if you put in your political parties and then you are forced to form consensus, your marginal groups end up having a disproportionate amounts of power, that’s what happened in the Maldives.
So your extremist groups, because one political party may not get enough seats to form a government, they end up aligning with parties that may have only got 5 or 6 percent of the vote but they end up with an enormous amount of power because the ruling party needs them. That happened in the Maldives, which, similarly, is a very small country and, similarly, a few years ago went “democratic” but it went with a multi party system instead of an independent state system and within a year they had their first Islamic extremist Islamic bombings. Now their parliament is so deadlocked that they had to bring in outsiders to try to sort it out. I am very concerned that something similar could happen here.
Q. Tonga may face deadlock, particularly in trying to choose a new Prime Minister?
There are a lot of concerns about the system. I was speaking with an older Tongan woman who is very smart and this democratic process is new to her. I was asking her who she was going to vote for and she said, ‘well you know I don’t like anyone in my constituency, but I like somebody in the neighbouring constituency, why can’t I vote for them?’
Now that’s a good fundamental issue: in a democracy why can’t you vote for someone you like?
So as you watch this process that government has put together, you realise that actually, piece by piece, it takes away voters’ rights, it boxes you in. And it creates distorted systems, because you’re importing something that has, over the centuries where it’s been put in place in other countries, it’s become distorted, through politicking and over-population and all that sort of stuff; and you are importing a system that is already corrupted, instead of looking locally to see what there is.
Q. Tonga demonstrates consensus politics all the time. There are traditional manners within it, that might be a guiding force, whereas politicians might not have any manners within this [current] political system which assumes, perhaps, that you have to lie and manufacture consent and have spin doctors.
This political system assumes there are no manners.
Q. So With Canada’s Northwest Territories they have a consensus-based model with no political parties?
Yes, everybody in the NW Territory runs as an independent. When the British parliament was founded everyone ran as an independent. George Washington was not a member of a political party, and [in the US] George Washington’s farewell address was about how political parties will polarize and destroy the country, and it has. In the US they are gridlocked. So why would you want to import a system where the proponents of it are in a state of political deadlock?
More importantly, when you are looking around for other models, not only are there are good examples within the country, there are good examples in neighbouring countries with similar cultures, like Fiji or Samoa. Why are the imports always coming from Australia and New Zealand, why aren’t you looking to cherry pick things that have worked in similar countries?
Population size alone can be a large determining factor. In the UK the average constituency size is the size of the entire population of Tonga. Here the average constituency is probably going to be 2,400.
Q. You can have a large number of candidates and, perhaps, a very small number of votes to win?
You can have lobby groups but legally the establishment of political parties is very problematic because it allows you to funnel money, unobserved, into political campaigns. So it can be coming from outside the country and coming from very narrow special interests; and if it goes through the political party to the candidate you don’t see the origin.
The other thing is that if you have a candidate who is a member of a political party their loyalty is to the political party and not to the constituency. It is the political party that funds their campaigns, that gives them the seat, that supports them in parliament. It’s not their constituencies that they have to go back and report to, it’s the political party they report to.
So just the fact of having a political party distorts the system and is unnecessary in a country of this size. It happens when constituencies get so big you can’t really know your candidates, so you end up voting instead for the party set of values. But here there is no reason for it.
Q. You are working for Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs ) while you are here and writing for the Toronto Star; a global multi-tasker?
I am still doing work for Chatham House and I’ve done some travel pieces about Tonga for the Toronto Star. But this work, the work related to understanding the electoral process and think tank, and the Tonga Energy Road Map, those are my own projects, they are just things that I felt like I needed to do.
Q. You are working also within Universities in India?
That’s geopolitical stuff, lecturing.
But I feel like what is going on here now in Tonga, I am very fond of this country and I am very concerned for this country. This is the time when I feel like I need to be here.
Q. It’s good that Tonga has friends like you.
Tonga deserves so much more, it really does, it’s gotten a raw deal for a long time and it’s a remarkable, spectacular place that’s very unique and deserves as much love and protection as it can get.
Q. So who has been giving Tonga a raw deal in your view?
I think that Australia and New Zealand have taken the Pacific for granted for a very long time and have been in a geopolitical context mismanaging the Pacific, and you can see that by the willingness that Pacific countries have opened up to places like China.
If Australia and New Zealand were really delivering what they were supposed to be delivering there would be no need for that. Australia and New Zealand will go and say, ‘Oh the countries are basket cases’. But who has been advising these countries for 30-50 years?
So if you have been basically controlling the economies and dictating access and they are basket cases, who is to blame?
They are not beneficial, they are policies that don’t help change the situation for the better and you see all sorts of stuff happening. Anyway, aid is done in a very peculiar fashion.
From a geopolitical perspective this region is going to become increasingly important.
Q. This is set out very clearly in your book and you do spend time talking about the Pacific arena not only in relation to the environment but also about China’s growing influence and we see it playing out before our eyes. You write that there is likely to be some naval manœuvring in the Pacific and then, lo and behold, when you are here, the navy ships are here. Did you know that was going to happen?
No. And it was actually on my birthday. So my birthday photo to my family members back home who are wondering where I am, was a photo of me and the Chinese Navy.
China is very smart about these things and all power to them, they are doing exactly what a national government should be doing.
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| Cleo Paskal visits the “Zhenghe” at Queen Salote Wharf, Nuku’alofa, open day on 3 September, 2010 during the China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy first visit to Tonga. |
So I think Australia and New Zealand really need to step up their game. Personally, I would like to see a better understanding of the region by other partners like the US, for example, which basically delegated management to Australia and New Zealand.
Q. Taiwan left Tonga and China came in with its own style.
They are good at what they do but it’s up to the country and the nation to have these discussions about where it wants to go and it’s up to our allies.
Traditionally, policy has been to keep your allies weak so you can have more control over them and those days are over, if that ever made sense it only made sense in the context of being a superior power with no competing power.
But It’s more that in moving forward the West has a lot of helpful allies that can potentially be very strong, including Tonga. But if you weaken them, if you push them so hard, you either push them into the enemy camp or they become useless as allies. So by weakening them you are weakening yourself.
So if you use WTO regulations to wreck the agricultural economy of Tonga, you are ultimately hurting yourself because Tonga will be forced to make decisions like partnering with China or other things out of sheer survival.
So you don’t have to control things 100 per cent, in fact you will not be able to control things 100 per cent, and in your attempt to control things you may lose the whole thing, and everybody will lose including the people of Tonga.
Q. You deal with some very serious issues. Are you advising the government of Tonga while you are here or just doing this through your Chatham House papers?
I am really here to learn through this phase. There are certain very specific things that I am very concerned about. I don’t know Tonga well enough to be able to advise on internal issues but there are certain things like political parties that I have watched the process in other countries and I think I know how it will play out here and I am talking to whomever is interested about that.
Q. The political reform motion has started, and since 2006 and the Nuku’alofa riots and that political confrontation when they had to set a deadline before they had even agreed on what kind of system they wanted, it’s really pressure cooked and forced this whole thing through in a superficial way and now we are going to see the consequences of that.
I am hoping and I am praying that when the new government comes in some issues like “first past the post” will be revisited, and I know that there’s concern that alternative vote (AV) is a complicated system but there’s so many ways of getting around that. You can, for example, run a high school class elections and film it and put it on TV and people will watch because it’s their kids and they will understand it quickly and people aren’t stupid. So there are ways of getting around it.
Hopefully, this is a work in progress and people and the nation will learn a lot on November 25th about how to be a better country on November 26th, instead of ripping itself apart.
Q. Has that been the pattern in other countries you have experience with following elections?
Normally, people who got in on one system don’t want to change the system because they got in.
Q. Putting that together with the judicial changes and the Tonga Ministry of Information’s clear intention to interfere with the freedom of the press before the election this year, it will be hard to change that at all.
I think there is a lot going on right now because people don’t know what the new system will be and so they want to stake their claims and mark their turf before the change comes in and so you see an enormous amount of activity in a lot of unrelated areas.
I am hoping that after the new government comes in there might be a period of analysis or reconsideration. That’s why a think tank would be so important.
Normally, the way governments are designed there are two chambers, there are the elective representatives and then there’s what we call a cabinet – a chamber for sober second thought, which in our case is the Senate and in the UK it’s the House of Lords. So they are people who are elected with a longer time span term; in the US the Senate is in for six years, whereas the House of Representatives is in for four years, and the idea of having a section of government that plans for longer than just the four years term is very important.
If it doesn’t happen within Government then maybe an organization like a think tank might be helpful in creating a space for that.
Q. That might also allow Tongans who are overseas who have experience in modern economies to have an input.
And also there are going to be a lot of good people who aren’t elected and you don’t want to lose what they have to contribute.
Q. Apart from your credentials as a geopolitical analyst, academic researcher, award-winning author and journalist, you are also a successful writer in television?
A TV series I co-wrote won an Emmy. I’ve hopped around from career to career, so I worked in television a long time, I worked in radio, magazine, print, and I’ve retired from more careers than many people have had. I ghost wrote a few books. But the drive has been consistent, which is to try to understand how things work and certain pieces of media allow you to do that in different ways, so that’s the key.
Yes, I did write a 13-part TV series, – a totally trashy documentary, it was “Cirque du Soleil Fire Within”. About following a circus; how they put on the show from auditions to opening night and the guy that runs the circus is a crazy megalomaniac, so it was about that.
Q. I wonder if there is a connection between circuses and politics?
A lot of crazy megalomaniacs in both. But that was just a job.
The book won an award, a Grantham Award.
[Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map by Cleo Paskal. Published by Key Porter Books (Canada) and Palgrave Macmillan (U.S.A.) 2009-10].
The Princess Regent HRH Princess Pilolevu Tuita boards the MV ‘Otuanga’ofa 
Christine ‘Uta’atu, Kate, Robina Nakao and Sue Gardiner
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